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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd